Today’s the day, after a brief summer campaign, that the only real poll takes place – the actual voting.
Pauline Marois and the Parti Québécois go into todays vote with 33% support according to a Léger poll, with the Liberals and CAQ in a virtual tie with 27% and 28% respectively.
Maybe the people who are wavering are not pleased with Jean Charest, but have been through a Parti Québécois government before and understand that a referendum on sovereignty doesn’t necessarily have to take place to cause instability economically, just the threat of one can really cause havoc.
Perhaps more interesting is a poll by CROP that shows that a large number of voters are still not certain of who they will vote for.
“As many as 28 per cent could still change their mind. With CAQ supporters, that number increases to 38 per cent. There is still a lot of fluidity in the CAQ vote,” said pollster Jean-Marc Léger, quoting figures from the Léger Marketing poll, released Sunday.
This high number of undecided voters could have a very important impact on the final outcome.
Réjean Pelletier, a Laval University political science professor, said there are two major categories of uncommitted voters. First off, there are Liberals who “don’t want to say that they are voting for the party, they feel a certain shyness about it.
”The other voters, who form a bigger group, are made up of “Liberals and péquistes who still have hesitations regarding the CAQ.”
“These are the people who will make the difference on Tuesday. If they go for the CAQ, the Liberals could end up in third place. If they remain faithful to the Liberals, the party could form the Official Opposition,” said Mr. Pelletier, who views a minority PQ government as the most likely scenario. Polls suggest support for the PQ is more stable than for the other two major parties.
Predicting how undecided voters will finally vote is no easy task. But could have great ramifications on the make up of the next Quebec legislature.
McGill University political scientist Antonia Maioni also agreed that the high level of uncommitted voters is unusual at this late stage of a campaign but may have little impact on the outcome.
She said many Quebec voters are unhappy with their choices and so they may simply stay home.She said it is impossible to predict which way these voters will break. Typically, the Liberals tend to under-poll in opinion surveys because nationalist Quebeckers are reluctant to acknowledge that they support the federalist party. However, she said that is less likely with an unpopular governing party seeking re-election.
Regardless of how things will turn out, until the polls close tonight the most important thing is: VOTE!!